A couple days ago, I posted about Murkowski’s write-in candidacy and how a split vote will have a better shot at keeping Joe Miller out of the Senate — Miller obviously being the most objectionable player in the three-way race.
Maybe I’m missing something because several people have explained to me that I’m flat wrong about the vote-split playing against Miller.
Late last month, PPP came up with the following numbers. In a two-way race (as of August 29), Joe Miller would win by a considerable margin. 47-39 over Scott McAdams. But in a three-way race with Murkowski in the mix, the split is significantly closer. Miller 38, Murkowski 34, McAdams 22.
So I was wrong that a split might help McAdams. But I was correct in determining that a split might keep Miller out of the Senate — or at least, Miller isn’t such a lock. In other words, without Murkowski, Miller easily wins, based on the polling. But with Murkowski, Miller is vulnerable.
What am I missing?