Nate Silver has some bad news for Joe Sestak:
Our forecast yesterday evening, which did not yet include the Rasmussen poll (nor the internal polls; we do not use them in our Senate predictions), showed a projected 7-point victory for Mr. Toomey and gave him a 92 percent chance of emerging as the victor. None of the new information would lead me to deviate greatly from that forecast.
Nate also notes some tighter polls, including a dubious internal poll showing Sestak up by a few points.
Personally, I’m not counting him out just yet. Sestak is a strong finisher and his TV presence is remarkably good (more Dems ought to hire his ad people). Wishful thinking perhaps.
And if Sestak is literally using dog poop as a prop in mid-October, what will he roll out in the last week of the campaign? My prediction? Midget, broom and what-not.