Past Is Not Prologue

Posted on July 21, 2011 at 6:00 pm by JM Ashby

Despite the weak economy, the rampant obstruction of the opposition party, and the looming debt-ceiling apocalypse, President Obama’s approval rating has remained relatively stable, neither dipping or jumping any significant amount.

This has left chief Gallup pollster, Frank Newport, scratching his head.

Compared with other recent presidents, President Obama’s approval numbers are “overperforming,” given the struggling economy and Americans’ low levels of satisfaction with the direction of the country, says Frank Newport, editor in chief of the Gallup Poll. [...]

“Looking at history, particularly Clinton and Reagan, it is somewhat surprising that [Obama] has never yet fallen into the 30 percent range in our approval rating,” Newport said. “And yet both Reagan and Clinton, in their first terms when the economy was perceived as bad … both fell into the 30s.”

Newport noted, “Satisfaction with the way things are going is … correlated with economic perceptions fairly strongly.” At the same time, Obama “is overperforming. Based on where every president has been, his approval rating now is higher than we would predict it to be based on” how satisfied American adults say they are.

Bill Clinton and Ronald Reagan were forced to wrestle with economic problems, but neither of them faced the kind of opposition and deliberate obstruction we are witnessing today.

Neither of them dealt with an opposition party that would sooner drive the nation off a cliff than agree with them on a single item of legislation. Neither of them faced questions regarding the legitimacy of their birth certificates. Rosemary’s Tea Party had not yet been conceived in the womb of Corporate America.

Sure, the insurrection of Newt Gingrich was ugly, but it doesn’t even rate compared to the doctrine of mutually assured destruction adopted by today’s Republican party.

A majority of Americans can clearly see that.

Obama campaign manager David Plouffe’s assertion that Americans will not vote based on unemployment in 2012 will remain untested until that time comes, but current polling does support his hypothesis.

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  • D_C_Wilson

    Obama’s approval ratings are higher than perhaps they might otherwise because of republican obstructionism, not despite it. While the GOP hold their collective breath until they turn blue to protect corporate jet tax write-offs, Obama looks like the only reasonable adult in the room.

    Progressives may be angry that he put Social Security and Medicare cuts on the table, but it plays well with the independents that swing elections see it as evidence that he’s willing compromise on even traditional democratic sacred cows while the GOP acts like spoiled children.

    I predicted that the 2010 election losses for the democrats would actually benefit Obama’s re-election chances because the GOP would overreach. If any thing, they exceeded my expectations.

    • Dan_in_DE

      Great points, Wilson.

      I see we used half of the same vocabulary in our comments – sorry, should have read yours before posting.

      Right, if Americans recognize that Obama is not at all to blame, then it’s in part because of the GOP’s absurd level of obstructionism, and despite all of the common wisdom. Consider the daily mantras eminating from nearly every news program, that ‘these are now Obama’s wars’, and ‘Obama has already added as much to the deficit as Bush in 1/4 the time’.

      If anything, it’s hard to believe that so few Americans have fallen for it.

      • D_C_Wilson

        That’s because, despite the GOP’s effort to create mass amnesia for everything prior to the 2008 election, every day, they remind Americans how irresponsible they are.

  • jjasonham

    I think anyone who’s been paying attention outside of the echo chamber has known this all along. It’s nice to see stats to back it up.

  • Dan_in_DE

    It really does give me some hope. If the average American has somehow caught on, despite all the media disinformation, that this bullshit is all the fault of a greedy, childish tea party Republican congressional class, then we are not nearly as stupid collectively as I have come to think.

  • http://drangedinaz.wordpress.com/ IrishGrrrl

    Right now the majority of Americans are still getting by, squeeking by maybe, but still….give it until next year when things really get bad, then I don’ t see the President as bullet proof. Americans don’t understand how our own govt works and they will expect Pres. O to pull some kind of executive miracle out of his hat and solve everything primarily because they’ve come to believe that’s what presidents do in a time of crisis.