And The Winner Is

Herman Cain?

“This is a sign of our growing momentum and my candidacy that cannot be ignored,” Cain said afterwards in a statement. “I will continue to share my message of ‘common sense solutions’ across this country and look forward to spending more time in Florida, a critical state for both the nomination and the general election.”“

The Georgia businessman got a boost in recent days from conservative bloggers like the influential Erick Erickson at Red State, who declared Perry a “train wreck” in Thursday’s debate and named Cain the clear winner. Others, like Ed Morrissey at HotAir, pumped up Cain’s performance as well.

Pundits and analysts are running with the idea that Rick Perry’s campaign is “near implosion” and that Herman Cain may gain momentum in the wake of his victory in the Florida straw poll, but I’m going to go ahead and throw cold water on that theory and say no, not happenin’.

The Florida straw poll is completely meaningless. Only 2,600 people voted in the poll, which you must pay to participate in, and neither Mitt Romney or Michele Bachmann officially participated in the poll. Additionally, Herman Cain has placed a lot of eggs in the Florida basket, spending more time there than the other candidates.

And as Jon Stewart so eloquently put it, Rick Perry is not running for the nomination of Pundit-town. Perry is running for the nomination of a group of people who cheer for the record-breaking number of executions he has presided over and scream to let the uninsured die. He’s running for the nomination of a group of people who cling to their guns and religion during times like this. People who boo at a member of the military because he’s gay.

At this point, the Lunatic Base™ is just as far apart from right-wing pundits as right-wing pundits are from average Americans. Right-wing pundits are paid to say crazy things. The lunatic base really is crazy. They will elect a crazy candidate.

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  • Dan_in_DE

    Great analysis, Ashby. Well said. Facebooking this..

  • http://phydeauxpseaks.blogspot.com Bob Rutledge

    Hopefully they will only be able to nominate a crazy candidate, and the general populace will then go on to reject Teh Crazy.

    • D_C_Wilson

      Never bet on the American public to reject Teh Crazy ™.

      Perry’s add may look ridiculous, but it appeals to people who even get Parker and Stone’s “America Fuck Yeah!” song was parody. Sadly, there seems to be more such people every day.

  • D_C_Wilson

    The media always gives these straw polls an out-sized significance when they really are nothing about fundraising schemes for the state party machinery. The winner of the Iowa straw poll never ends up getting the nomination, much less elected.

    These are just exercises in seeing how many people each candidate can bus in.

  • muselet

    At this point, the Lunatic Base™ is just as far apart from right-wing pundits as right-wing pundits are from average Americans.

    You mean, right-wing pundits … are the middle?

    We’ll just have to wait and see if this means anything. Straw polls are meaningless, as are intraparty candidate debates, but Righty pundits do influence the Righty rank-and-file. If the likes of Erick ibn Erick and Ed Morrissey keep banging the Herman Cain drum, Rick Perry’s support among the Lunatic Base™ may decline, though by how much is an open question.

    I don’t think we’re going to see Herman Cain as the Republican candidate for president (oh, what fun that would be!), but Rick Perry is seen as vulnerable and will get seriously roughed-up in the coming weeks. Especially if he sticks to his position on educating the children of the undocumented, something which enrages the Lunatic Base™ almost as much as having a Democrat in the White House.

    I’m not stocking up on popcorn just yet, but the Republican nominating process could be very entertaining.

    –alopecia

    • http://twitter.com/groobiecat Groobiecat

      Good points. He can’t be counted out; no one can, really, at this point (except, perhaps, Cain himself, because the republican party is going to nominate a black man All. Day. Long.). The good news? Aside from forgettable straw polls, Perry’s performance (and that includes the previous debate where he compares himself, ignorantly and erroneously, of course, to Galileo when it comes global warming) in the debate the other night, does not augur well for his prospects.

      Are he and all his base are belong to crazy? Sure. But, like Bachmann, he’s not all that bright *and* he’s incredibly arrogant. This is a pretty heady brew of stupid, if you ask me. He doesn’t have the ideas, bullet points, or delivery that one needs to defend the indefensible, as the election season ramps up. What he *does* have, though, is one helluva Texas-looking jaw. But that’s about it. After a while, even the right gets tired of that as a qualification for the presidency.

      • http://drangedinaz.wordpress.com/ IrishGrrrl

        I have to disagree. If the crazy right got tired of stupid and arrogant, why would they look at Perry in the first place? Didn’t we have arrogant and stupid for 8 years in Bush? Don’t kid yourself….so long as the crazy tea party is in control of the GOP Primary Perry will be the nominee.

        • http://twitter.com/groobiecat Groobiecat

          I see your point, and clearly, Perry’s still very much in contention– the lizard-brain set is capable of anything, but my main point was that he’s an arrogant idiot who isn’t really ready for primetime, and that could help undo him among the less crazy folk. And it’s not all Tea Party or no party–the right is split, make no mistake about it, and I don’t think that the Tea Party is completely in control of the GOP primary’s outcome. If they were, Mitt Romney wouldn’t even be in contention and it’d be basically a race between Perry and Bachmann.

          I think there are lot of older, conservative Americans who are genuinely concerned about the far right’s desire to dismantle the machinery that they rely on for sustenance. These are the folks Democrats need to target:

          http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-tz-SUkpuabs/TnyVzrGSU9I/AAAAAAAAAZM/QaXaG1jhRBM/s400/welcome+to+florida.jpg

          Also, this piece in HuffPo isn’t definitive, but it offers an alternative view of Perry’s prospects:

          http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/09/23/rick-perry-2012-sudden-fall-errors_n_978608.html

  • Lexamich

    “This is a sign of our inability to be serious and declare my candidacy a sham usually pulled by clowns like Alan Keyes,” Cain said afterwards in a statement. “I will continue to relay my message of ‘megalomania through government’ across this country and look forward to spending more time in Florida, whose weather isn’t as hot as the inside of a pizza oven or surface of Hades.”“

    The Georgia Pizza Pusher, who’s black, by the way, got fluffed for no reason other than to spite President Obama in recent days from con-servaknave imbeciles like the semi-retarded, doughy blabbermouth Erick Erickson at the virtual pigsty called Red State, who declared himself a “train wreck” that no one should listen to as he, unfortunately, declared Cain the clear winner of something. Other con-servaknave riff-raff, like Ed Morrissey at the otherwise unremarkable HotAir, pumped up Cain’s below mediocre performance somewhere as well for what little that’s actually worth.

    People that are not con-servatwit scum asked Mitt to get a job. They asked Huntsman to go back to China. They commanded that Bachmann and her Knave of Hearts to go back to whatever tax-free Wonderland they waddled in from. They suggested that Ron Paul drop dead like the dude in that Brian Williams question. They asked Santorum to come out already because it does get better. They also suggested that Newt to recall the fact that Americans don’t actually like him or the wife whose name he drops constantly because she’s primarily known as “Homewrecker.” Oh, and for that dude whose name no one can remember, but who stole a lame joke from El Flushbo, pick up what’s left of his dignity next time he scoops up his dog’s shit in the backyard and STFU.