No Credit For You!

Posted on March 13, 2012 at 11:43 am by Bob Cesca

Greg Sargent notes that the new New York Times/CBS poll could be bad news for the president. Mainly, the president’s approval dropped to 41 percent while…

Americans are still expressing confidence that the economy is staying the same or getting better, with those who believe that outnumbering those who view the economy as getting worse by nearly three to one.

Sargent thinks this could indicate that voters won’t credit president for the improving economy.

I don’t know for sure. I think the poll is an outlier given that Gallup has the president at 49 percent according to Ashby.

Regardless, it’s worth keeping an eye on Sargent’s analysis.

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  • i_a_c

    The Pollster average hasn’t shown a slide in the overall average yet, so it may be an outlier, but it’s certainly something to keep an eye on.

    http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/obama-job-approval#!

  • http://twitter.com/ExtremeLiberal ExtremeLiberal (Jim)

    It’s just a snapshot and considering the different methodologies used for polling these days, it could be weighted, it could be question order, it could be chance that more anti-Obama folks were at home.

    I look forward to the General election when more than 1/3 of the population is paying attention and our very trusted, confident, convincing President is given more air time….debates and the like.

  • JMAshby

    The CBS/NYTimes poll gave a +7 weighting to conservatives and +3 independents.

    It’s bogus. And yeah, Gallup has him at 49%, and the funny thing about that is Gallup has had him way down for the last month contrary to others.

    Something went wrong with this poll.

  • http://profiles.google.com/myquest Michael West

    I prefer to keep an eye on Nate Silver’s analysis, which is “In overreacting to every tick in Mr. Obama’s approval ratings, you’ll risk losing sight of the bigger picture.”

    http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/03/12/approval-ratings-gas-prices-and-statistical-noise/#more-28403

  • http://twitter.com/SugaRazor Razor

    I’m of the mindset that polls mean absolutely nothing until October. Obama will drop when Romney announces a VP, he’ll bounce back at the convention, he’ll drop after the Republican convention, the debates will cause fluctuation and it won’t be until the end of the race when we get a true picture of where the undecided dipshits are at.

  • Ned F

    Just heard on NPR that 63% say the President isn’t doing enough about gas prices. Seems weird to me, but I read and pay attention. Most people don’t apparently. NPR did reinforce that prices are out of the President’s ability and influence. So, these poll numbers are probably weighted due to those figures. I’ve nearly given up on trying to educate people, especially when I just get a “pfff, Obama” at the mention of his name. I really hope people aren’t ready to trade away their voting and civil rights, health care and retirement, for a chance to save 10.00 a week on gas.

    • i_a_c

      It’s a stupid question, because there’s almost nothing a president CAN do about the price of gas. But the media needs its Bad News For Obama™ fix, so they’ll run with this narrative.

    • eljefejeff

      It doesn’t matter that Obama can’t do much about gas prices. He’s president, he takes the blame. The average voter would hold a republican president responsible too. Reality rarely matters when it comes to elections. 2008 was an outlier.

  • drsquid

    It’s bullshit. Somehow they managed to poll GOP primary voters, the nuttiest of the nutty, at double their actual turnout rate.

  • Victor_the_Crab

    Let’s wait until Obama hits the campaign trail and he goes head to head with the robotic and uninspiring Romney before anyone adopts Bill Maher’s Chicken Little routine.

  • http://www.politicalruminations.com/ nicole

    MSNBC is calling it an outlier.

    http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2012/03/13/10667419-first-thoughts-why-romney-could-lose-and-also-win

    If it isn’t an outlier, I would say that it’s in response to rising gas prices, especially given that the media has not done much to educate the general public on the reasons for the rise ( and yeah, I know that the rise in GP is likely not the case, but im just sayin’)

    EDIT: Just read Nate Silver’s piece on this — you should read it!
    http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/03/12/approval-ratings-gas-prices-and-statistical-noise/#more-28403

  • http://mdblanche.myopenid.com/ mdblanche

    First we get a poll showing a decline in approval for the President and a loss in a head-to-head match-up with Romney. Then we get a poll with an even bigger dip in approval to an all time low (TM), but still leading Romney head-to-head. At the same time the poll that was lower than the others is now higher. I’ve got to agree with the Chewbacca defense. Either it’s all noise or somebody’s just messing with us.

  • eljefejeff

    I’m glad we’re talking about this, this just goes to prove Maher’s point that the election is NOT over yet. Today, yes, Obama would win in a landslide, but there are many factors beyond his control which could possibly allow Romney to sneak past 270 electoral votes.