A Prediction on the President and Same-Sex Marriage

Posted on May 9, 2012 at 3:05 pm by Bob Cesca

My Wednesday post for The Daily Banter is up. Read and RT often.

I don’t often make predictions in politics. It’s an exercise usually reserved for pundits who have an insecure obsession with being omniscient – the first head on the block to accurately guess something that’s almost unpredictable.

But on the issue of same-sex marriage, I feel rather confident in the prediction that in a would-be President Obama second term, the president will make a serious effort to dismantle or entirely repeal the Defense of Marriage Act (DOMA) and he’ll publicly endorse state-level referendums to make same-sex marriage legal in the remaining states which are currently holding back the LGBT community as second-class citizens…

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  • http://phydeauxpseaks.blogspot.com Bob Rutledge

    “at a certain point I’ve just concluded that for me personally it is important for me to go ahead and affirm that I think same sex couples should be able to get married,” Obama told Roberts, in an interview to appear on ABC’s “Good Morning America” Thursday. Excerpts of the interview will air tonight on ABC’s “World News with Diane Sawyer.”

    http://gma.yahoo.com/blogs/abc-blogs/president-obama-affirms-his-support-for-same-sex-marriage.html

    • i_a_c

      Gotta say I’m surprised. I guess it puts an end to the Cescablog debate over what’s the right political thing to do.

  • stacib23

    Obama endorses gay marriage – shit, shit, shit.

  • i_a_c

    Here’s how I see the president’s political calculation:

    First off, it’s a politically risky thing to do. This is an issue that divides even Democrats, and as we saw in North Carolina, much of the country isn’t ready for this conversation.

    But the tide has been turning, especially during Obama’s presidency. I think that part of the calculation here was that he wanted to fire up his base and turn out young voters, at the risk of losing some swing voters. Maybe it will get him some donations, too. And it’s early enough out that this may turn out to be a minor issue when it’s all said and done.

    Not doing this would have been politically safe. The president decided to take a risk, as we’ve become accustomed to him doing every now and again. Those risks have worked out pretty well for him so far.

    • stacib23

      Obama won’t just lose swing voters – he’ll lose a portion of the black vote, too. I sure hope this doesn’t cost him the election.

      • i_a_c

        I don’t think he will lose black voters over this issue–not very many, anyway. “Gay marriage” will not be on the ballot. “Barack Obama” will.

        We’ll have to see how the polling changes in the next few weeks. It’s early enough in the cycle that it’s not a make-or-break moment.

        • stacib23

          I’m not sure which side of town you live on – maybe your town in more progressive, but I’m from the south side of Chicago. This will cost Obama votes in the black community.

        • http://www.politicalruminations.com/ nicole

          Uh, it is a make or break moment.

  • http://www.politicalruminations.com/ nicole

    EDIT: I’m really torn on this. On the one hand, it is unquestionably the right thing to do. On the other hand, it came at the wrong damn time, and the Republicans may make us eat it.

    Well, all or nothing, I guess.

    We need to hit Romney and hit him hard! Why doesn’t he support repeal of DOMA? Why doesn’t he think same sex couples should be allowed to marry?
    And so forth.

    We need to turn this around on the coming Republican effort to fight a culture war we shouldn’t be fighting a few months prior to a presidential election.

    Adding………someone asked on another post how Romney sleeps at night. I can tell you one thing….he’s going to sleep really well tonight.