The Supreme Court could hand down its decision on the Affordable Care Act today. Mike Sacks doesn’t think it looks good for the bill.
During oral arguments in late March, the court’s five Republican-appointed justices appeared to lean strongly toward invalidating the Affordable Care Act’s individual health-insurance mandate. The four Democrat appointees lined up solidly behind the law. Still, views may have softened in the weeks since the arguments, and the complexity of the issues involved may have left some room for twists and turns as the justices sat down to write their opinions.
If the court does overturn the mandate, it’s going to be hard to know how to react. It would mean that the Supreme Court had officially entered an era where they were frankly willing to overturn liberal legislation just because they don’t like it. Pile that on top of Bush v. Gore and Citizens United and you have a Supreme Court that’s pretty explicitly chosen up sides in American electoral politics. This would be, in no uncertain terms, no longer business as usual.
I’m not very hopeful either, and if the Supremes strike this one down, there’s very little hope for another healthcare reform bill within the next 20 years. Costs will continue to climb without restraint, millions of Americans who attained coverage with the act will lose it, and old people will face the donut hole again. To name a few things.