Healthcare D-Day

Posted on June 21, 2012 at 7:19 am by Bob Cesca

The Supreme Court could hand down its decision on the Affordable Care Act today. Mike Sacks doesn’t think it looks good for the bill.

During oral arguments in late March, the court’s five Republican-appointed justices appeared to lean strongly toward invalidating the Affordable Care Act’s individual health-insurance mandate. The four Democrat appointees lined up solidly behind the law. Still, views may have softened in the weeks since the arguments, and the complexity of the issues involved may have left some room for twists and turns as the justices sat down to write their opinions.

Kevin Drum:

If the court does overturn the mandate, it’s going to be hard to know how to react. It would mean that the Supreme Court had officially entered an era where they were frankly willing to overturn liberal legislation just because they don’t like it. Pile that on top of Bush v. Gore and Citizens United and you have a Supreme Court that’s pretty explicitly chosen up sides in American electoral politics. This would be, in no uncertain terms, no longer business as usual.

I’m not very hopeful either, and if the Supremes strike this one down, there’s very little hope for another healthcare reform bill within the next 20 years. Costs will continue to climb without restraint, millions of Americans who attained coverage with the act will lose it, and old people will face the donut hole again. To name a few things.

Tick tock.

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  • missliberties

    The bill has so many good things in it. Most especially the state wide community health centers.

    If they do strike it down it will be very upsetting. I will of course have to thank all the good liberals who insisted that nothing is better than something, because opening a door that has been slammed shut for so long, isn’t worth it unless you get a pony.

    So thanks to all of you dKos bloggers for dividing liberals, progressives and democrats at a time when we needed to stand united against a monolithic force known as the GOP. But of course you got to keep your ‘principles’.

    • http://www.politicalruminations.com/ nicole

      Hey, you mentioned dKos, but you forgot Huffpost where we daily battled with the Firebaggers over this. :)

      I still despise Huffpost and dKos.

    • http://twitter.com/SugaRazor Razor

      It doesn’t matter what would’ve been passed, as long as Obama got some kind of health care law through, the GOP reaction would’ve been the same and so would the SCOTUS decision: 5-4 against.

      The country is broken.

  • http://www.politicalruminations.com/ nicole

    Opinions are made public at 10am, so if it is handed down today, we’ll soon know.

    I have a small, tiny, miniscule amount of hope, but it’s based on nothing in particular. :(

  • astrocat96

    I really hope they don’t overturn the bill, both on principle and because I’ll lose my insurance. While I find there is little hope to be had here, hope is all I can have now. So here’s to hoping.

  • GrafZeppelin127

    After the Court strikes down the ACA, I’m going to have to go away for a while.

    Forget the fact that it will be a huge gift to the GOP and basically hand Romney the election. Forget the fact that it will put an end once and for all not only to the hope of ever having universal medical coverage in the U.S., but to any perception that the Supreme Court is a not a purely political entity, a sort of unelected super-Congress with veto power over both of the other branches but no political risk, not an institution of apolitical judicial review. Forget even the awfulness that will ensue, as this country slowly becomes the feudal oligarchy that the GOP and its fans so desperately want.

    I’m tired. I’m depressed. I’m exhausted. I’ve spent so much time and energy studying the ACA and associated legal precedent and trying to explain it to people, trying to educate them as to what the law actually is and does and why it’s constitutional, and do it dispassionately without getting nasty or calling names or accusing people of being stupid or biased or incapable of reason, that it’s felt like a second job. I sometimes feel like I’ve spent more time, thought and intellectual effort on the ACA than on my own cases. I feel like I could have done a better job at oral argument than the Solicitor General did, as unjustifiably arrogant as it is to think that. But the wall of GOP fans’ alternate universe is impenetrable. This fight has taken a lot out of me. Seeing them win this is going to be more than I can take.

    Talking to, listening to, reading and seeing the fevered hallucinations of the GOP and its fans, being verbally assaulted by the lies and fantasies and delusions and mischaracterizations and hypocrisy and phoniness and cynicism and viciousness and self-congratulation and resentment and downright idiocy of selfish, cruel, delusional lunatics, all the time, is becoming overwhelming. It’s like an incessant noise, an oppressive din of abject insanity. You’d have to be a fool to not recognize what the GOP is doing, how it’s operating in an alternate reality and basically engaged in an elaborate 24/7 improv act, cynically manipulating its fans and the nation for pure political gain, but no one wants to do anything about it and the nation is, of course, filled with fools. It’s like being in a dream, trying to scream for help but no sound comes out. And it’s starting to affect me personally; it’s creeping into my life, my work and my relationships with other people, even making me physically ill. I’ve had at least two friends in the past couple of weeks ask me what’s wrong and say, “You’re not yourself.”

    That’s how I know I need to stop.

    I’m going on vacation next week and am going to try to avoid the news while I’m away. If I can, after I get back I’ll keep avoiding the news at least through the conventions. I need to do this for my own health.

    I like the community here at BCAB. That’s why I posted this here. I’ll be back. I’m not giving up. I’m just going away for a while.

    • http://www.politicalruminations.com/ nicole

      Graf, please take care of yourself. You will be missed.

    • stacib23

      My day just got a bit more depressing, but I absolutely understand how you feel. I going to hope for a brighter day – for both of us.

    • mrbrink

      I, for one, would have rather had it be you making the case to the high court, Graf’.

      Voters are not going to reward the sort of overreach, negativity, and cruelty the Republican party has promoted.

      The fools are still a minority issue by issue.

    • Draxiar

      Best to you Graf! I’m confident that everyone here appreciates your mindset. Rest well knowing that if you didn’t care, it wouldn’t bother you. Time away is good and I hope it is good for your peace of mind.

      *salute*

    • Brutlyhonest

      Try to enjoy your vacation and good luck staying away from it for as long as you need to/can.

      I enjoy reading your posts here and look forward to your eventual return.

    • bphoon

      I feel ya, Graf. I have to step back from time to time as well because the frustration of feeling like I’m talking to a brick wall just wears me down over time.

      I hate to have to say it, but if/when SCOTUS overturns the ACA, maybe people will wise up to what they’ve lost. Polls consistently show that, while many “oppose” the ACA as a whole, most are solidly in favor of its individual provisions. I suspect that people a) lack a basic understanding of how insurance actuaries work and, b) don’t fully realize that if, for example, the individual mandate goes away so, arguably, does the rest of the ACA. Millions will be right back where they started, wondering how that happened so fast. Our job, in that event, is to do our best to educate people that their pain is the result of GOP intransigence, not the govmint taking away their freedoms.

      It has become painfully clear to me just how politically motivated SCOTUS has become. There used to be a day when they were part and parcel of an independent judiciary, basing their decisions on the Constitution and nothing else. I always believed the SCOTUS was immune to political demagoguery but that’s pretty hard to maintain when you pack the Court with a bunch of political demagogues. “Strict constructionists”, indeed.

    • muselet

      Graf, I understand why you need to take a break from the madness—hell, I empathize—and if that’s what you need to bring your life back into balance, the rest of us are just going to have to muddle along without you.

      “Never give up, never surrender!”

      –alopecia

    • MrDHalen

      Graf,

      You have captured my thoughts exactly again and put them into another one of your wonderful post. I really enjoy reading your comments and seek them out. You will definitely be missed while you are away.

      Take care of yourself and do your best to enjoy your time away.

  • http://www.politicalruminations.com/ nicole

    10:27 no opinion rendered on the ACA today. Next, possibility will be on Monday at 10 am, although it could come during an as yet unannounced opinion day some other day next week.

  • SlapFat

    “I’m not very hopeful either….”

    Kind of a gloomy column, eh? There’s been quite a bit of chatter for weeks about the chance of survival for this law. And guess what? People said the same thing the entire time it was being debated in Congress. That it was doomed, doomed, doomed. I was on the front lines for getting people involved and motivated to bring this legislation into passage and there were lots of rough times in making it happen.

    The TEA Party vomiting their bile at townhall meetings in August 2009.

    Scott Brown getting elected.

    The Democrats’ hesitance to use the reconciliation process.

    Bart Stupak and Joe Lieberman obstructing virtually everything.

    Those were challenges- and they were overcome. The judicial branch (very much in need of reform itself) can behave as self-righteously as they like but eventually they will age, be replaced, and better possibilities will be more accessible. I fought for this law tooth and nail for months on end, and if anything happens to it I’ll be prepared to leap into the fray to replace it with something better.

    Defeats don’t crush my conviction. They strengthen it.

    Let’s not act as though this legislation has already been overturned. I’ll happily eat my words to gear up for the next confrontation when it happens, but until then let’s watch with interest, not despair.

    The last thing to be let out of Pandora’s Box was hope. It proved rather valuable.

    Forward.

    • Brutlyhonest

      I truly admire your optimism.

  • Victor_the_Crab

    Republicans are evil. But slowly and surely, they are creeping towards Nazi and Soviet style evil.

  • Al Iriberri

    I wonder if you’re off-target here. Part of me says “screw it, let them overturn it”. Seriously. Consider that it would provide a perfectly stark example for those that benefitted from it as to what exactly they’re losing. Think of the backlash when seniors suddenly plop back into the coverage gaps, when families have to once again scramble to figure out coverage for their young adult children and those with pre-existing coverage are once again being denied coverage. It may take that to actually wake people up to the reality that healthcare reform is critically needed. A significant segment of society didn’t realize it this time around and if they lose what was gained it may (hopefully) result in a vastly different legislative environment for a future effort.

    • bphoon

      I truly hate to think it takes that level of suffering for people to finally realize what they have. But, it seems that it does.

      “When the pain of remaining the same becomes greater than our fear of change, we will [change].” -Narcotics Anonymous It Works How and Why, Step 6

  • D_C_Wilson

    So, let’s assume the ACA is overturned. Bob is right, it will be the final nail in the coffin to the myth that SCOTUS is above politics. And our “librul media” will of course, proclaim it as a huge defeat for Obama and the democrats.

    I reject the idea that this will hand Romney the election. Yes, the republicans will have gotten the first half of their mantra, “repeal”, so now it’ll be time to put their feet to the fire on the other half “replace”. Our “librul media” so far, hasn’t bothered to ask them for details. We’re going to have to do it for them. From now until November, we should hammer them on it. Demand that they come up with a replacement bill before the end of the next congressional session.

    Progressives need to stop whining about not getting the perfect pony from Obama and start getting directing our anger that the real source of our problems today.

  • i_am_allwrite

    If the mandate gets struck down and the rest stands–which seems to be the probable scenario–the insurance industry is fucked. The only way they can afford ACA is with a mandate. With this decision getting pushed back, it makes me think that Kennedy isn’t willing to strike down the whole bill, and Scalia or Thomas–the two conservatives who have obviously been bought–are shitting their pants and trying to figure out what to do. Again, the insurance industry’s first choice is to overturn the whole thing, their second is to uphold the whole thing, and their nightmare is for everything BUT the mandate to be upheld.