Former Romney Adviser Dan Senor Still Delusional

Dan Senor, one of Romney’s neocon foreign policy advisers, thinks there’s a “systemic” crisis with presidential polls. You know, because two or three of them were wrong.

There’s “some kind of systemic crisis today in the world of polling,” Senor said. “I think particularly on the right-of-center polling — the modeling was way off.”

“The Republican establishment needs to do an audit here,” he added, and “figure out how our understanding of what the electorate looked like was way off.”

Yes, Gallup and Rasmussen were wrong because their sampling was way off, but everyone else was just about right. However, the real problem was the fact that Republicans and the Romney campaign refused to look at the broader polling averages especially at the state level. Instead, they cherrypicked the best-looking polls and stupidly judged their odds based on crowds and yard signs. Amateur mistakes.

Print Friendly
This entry was posted in Election 2012 and tagged , , , . Bookmark the permalink.
  • http://twitter.com/BlueTrooth Rich Baska

    Democracy is “messy”, right Dan?

  • BuffaloBuckeye

    “The Republican establishment needs to do an audit here,” he added, and “figure out how our understanding of what the electorate looked like was way off.”

    The polling had nothing to do with it, asshole. It was the GOP narrow worldview.

  • muselet

    There’s “some kind of systemic crisis today in the world of polling,” Senor said.

    A systemic crisis? Goodness, that sounds serious.

    Except it isn’t. Polling is subject to all kinds of confounding variables. There are ways simple and complicated to correct for problems like crap sampling. Folks like Nate Silver and Sam Wang are really good at making those corrections, but it’s not like there’s some unknowable magic to the process—and hey, Jonah Goldberg, it’s not a scam or a fraud, you sad, pathetic little man. It’s just math. This is all about as surprising as the sunrise, and yet the Rs are surprised.

    I think particularly on the right-of-center polling — the modeling was way off.

    EXHIBIT ‘A’: Dean Chambers. (This may well be the first time his name has appeared so close to the word “modeling.”) EXHIBIT ‘B’: The Romney campaign.

    The Republican establishment needs to do an audit here,” he added, and “figure out how our understanding of what the electorate looked like was way off.

    It couldn’t possibly be because the Republican Party has become the last barely-respectable outpost of resentful, white, rural, Christian men of little education, could it? Nah, it must be something else. We need to get to the bottom of this!

    Not the sharpest tool in the shed, is he?

    –alopecia

    • bphoon

      Not the sharpest tool in the shed, is he?

      It seems not many, starting with the candidate himself, were.

  • D_C_Wilson

    Let me see if I help you out help, Dan.

    You see, the “systemic” problem is the difference between math and just wishing really, really hard.

  • http://twitter.com/corey_smith80 Corey Smith

    LOL at Dan Senor for believing anyone thought Romney was Reaganesque and “iconic” hahaha. Romney was a terrible candidate, if it had not been for his ability to lie like rug in the first debate the election would’ve been worse for him. It’s the Repubs insistence on living in fantasy land that allowed them to believe that Romney was going to win a landslide and they adjusted their data to make it so

  • Joey Tranchina

    In management, when you screw up that badly, it really doesn’t matter what you say.

    • bphoon

      True. Generally, you’re fired before you have the chance to say it. Unless you’re in the financial sector, that is.