Swing State Polls 4 Days Out

The latest swing state polls via Political Wire.

Colorado: Obama 46%, Romney 46% (Reuters/Ipsos)

Colorado: Obama 50%, Romney 46% (Public Policy Polling)

Colorado: Obama 47%, Romney 45% (Denver Post/SurveyUSA)

Florida: Obama 48%, Romney 46% (Reuters/Ipsos)

Iowa: Obama 49%, Romney 45% (Gravis)

Michigan: Obama 52%, Romney 47% (Rasmussen)

Michigan: Obama 52%, Romney 46% (Public Policy Polling)

Nevada: Obama 50%, Romney 44% (Mellman)

New Hampshire: Obama 50%, Romney 44% (New England College)

Ohio: Obama 49%, Romney 49% (Rasmussen)

Ohio: Obama 47%, Romney 45% (Reuters/Ipsos)

Ohio: Obama 50%, Romney 46% (We Ask America)

Virginia: Obama 48%, Romney 45% (Reuters/Ipsos)

Virginia: Obama 49%, Romney 48% (We Ask America)

Wisconsin: Obama 52%, Romney 45% (We Ask America)

I’ve been avoiding talking about the polls lately because they’ve been all over the place with a lot of noise between them, but now that we’re four days away from the election a more clear picture is beginning to emerge.

The president is in a very strong position heading into the weekend and Romney is blustering, planning trips to Pennsylvania, Nevada, and New Hampshire. States that are unlikely to go in his favor.

The reason the Romney campaign is making these moves is fairly easy to explain — their path to 270 electoral votes is precarious at best. In fact there is a scenario in which the president can reach 270 even without Ohio. Mitt Romney would otherwise have to run the table to win.

Here’s Nate Silver’s latest gay wizard forecast.

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  • i_a_c

    There are actually several scenarios where the president can win without Ohio.

    He could win Florida instead.
    He could win CO + IA + NH.
    He could win VA plus one of the above states.

    Admittedly it’s hard to imagine a scenario where he loses Ohio but wins Florida.

    But if Ohio gets called for the president, you can go to bed, because it’s over. Or you can not go to bed and start the victory celebration.

    Go try it for yourself. Right off the bat, I gave NV, WI, MI, and PA to the president, and NC to Romney. The president winning Ohio would end it right there.

  • incredulous72

    OK, which asshole called Silver a gay wizard?

    Call me scary, but my concern now is voting in states that have been hit hard by Sandy, and the possible stealing of this election by the Rmoneys’ by their rigging the voting machines.

    Yes, I know I’m scary, but I still have faith. ;-)

    • MrDHalen

      I’m worried that Sandy is going to lower the president’s popular vote totals. People who are cleaning up may skip voting because they live in safe Democratic states.

      • http://www.politicalruminations.com/ nicole

        They’re sending military trucks to New Jersey to serve as polling places. It may help.

        • KanaW

          Seeing that relieves my mind a lot. Thanks for the info :*)

          • http://www.politicalruminations.com/ nicole

            you’re more than welcome, Kana. :)

    • JMAshby

      The unskewed polls guy called him gay and Politico said he’s not a wizard.

    • http://www.politicalruminations.com/ nicole

      the voting machines invested in by the Romney family are only in Ohio. I think. They might also be in Colorado. I’m worried about that too.

      • BuffaloBuckeye

        As a native Ohioian, let me get my ‘concern’ comment out of the way today. I’m not concerned about the voting machines, that issue IMO has been flagged as something to watch and address. I am concerned about Ohio’s SoS Husted screwing around with voters, particularly in Democratic leaning districts. I’m also cocerned if Ohio State covers the 27.5 spread against Illinos today. Other than that, I’m fine. Go Obama! Go Buckeyes!

    • http://phydeauxpseaks.blogspot.com Bob Rutledge

      Unless the hurricane targeted Democrats specifically, it’s hard to see how it could turn a state.

      • incredulous72

        Not turn the state, but produce lower voter turnout, thereby effecting the popular vote.
        I know, the popular vote doesn’t count; but those repug sonsabitches will find a way to make it count if they can, and I don’t want them to have a leg to stand on.

  • gescove

    I put down bets with my older brother and his eldest son on the election outcome. They went on about the “preference cascade” phenomenon that would sweep Rmoney to victory. Evidently, due to the well known liberal bias of all polls and the media, progressives live in an “Obama’s re-election is inevitable” bubble. And, boy howdy, are we going to be surprised when the bubble collapses due to the awesome power of the preference cascade. It seems like they are burnishing the Mittmentum turd to a high sheen to me. Anyway, I put my money down alongside the smart money — Nate Silver.

  • MrDHalen

    I just did a thought experiment with the map based on where I think the country will be in maybe 15 years if Obama wins. This experiment is based a hypothetical white male Democratic candidate running for President and the Republicans are still clinging to white resentment as their core issue.

    These states all become blue: Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Indiana, Missouri, Virginia, North Carolina, and Texas.

    The Democratic candidate wins with 419 electoral votes vs. 119 for the Republican. That’s a lot of blue!

    They say Texas is going to turn someday, but I’m not sure how long that is project out.

    How does everyone else see our electoral map in 10 to 15 years?

  • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=1660232308 Lorena Anderson

    OK, Ashby, “gay wizard forecast” just made me fall in love with you.

    • http://www.facebook.com/people/Rich-Morgan/100000299284844 Rich Morgan

      OMG, Nate’s a WIZARD???

      • http://profile.yahoo.com/U4BHCFE5U2XM3XYHH2D6PKJDYY J

        A gay wizard, at that. He’s the Dumbledore of statisticians!

        • incredulous72

          awesome!

  • http://phydeauxpseaks.blogspot.com Bob Rutledge

    Gay wizard forecast:

    Rmoney shall not win!!!

    • http://phydeauxpseaks.blogspot.com Bob Rutledge

      I had to do it — even though all I’ve got access to right now is MSPaint….