“The Republican Party Would Cease to Exist”

By all accounts, incoming Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX) is batshit. He believes in conspiracy theories about U.N. Agenda 21 and that Sharia Law is a real threat. But there is at least one thing he has right; Republicans are on the verge of total isolation.

“In not too many years, Texas could switch from being all Republican to all Democrat,” he said. “If that happens, no Republican will ever again win the White House. New York and California are for the foreseeable future unalterably Democrat. If Texas turns bright blue, the Electoral College math is simple. We won’t be talking about Ohio, we won’t be talking about Florida or Virginia, because it won’t matter. If Texas is bright blue, you can’t get to two-seventy electoral votes. The Republican Party would cease to exist. We would become like the Whig Party. Our kids and grandkids would study how this used to be a national political party. ‘They had Conventions, they nominated Presidential candidates. They don’t exist anymore.’”

It’s one thing to state the obvious problem. It’s another thing entirely to actually fix it.

Even if you were to assume that congressional Republicans will go along with immigration reform under President Obama after killing it under George W. Bush (and let’s be honest, that was a far less radical congress) there is no guarantee that it would be accepted at the state level.

The Republicans may decide that they must pass immigration reform if they want to limit the margin Democrats are winning Latino voters by in Midwestern and eastern battlegrounds, but in states where this is less of a direct concern they may face stiff opposition from their own base of support.

It would be a sight to behold if the next session of congress actually did give in and pass comprehensive immigration reform, but then faced a long slog in state courts in a manner similar to the drawn-out process that eventually found Obamacare being debated at the Supreme Court.

And that’s assuming a lot. That’s assuming immigration reform can even make it out of the House of Representatives which is still controlled by the Tea Party. Northeastern and western Republicans may vote for it, but will representatives from the south and Midwest? Will Republican representatives who may be facing a primary challenger next year vote for it?

I don’t ascribe to the belief that immigration reform alone is enough. Dismissing half the country as moochers and leaches, which carries with it a certain amount of racial overtone, and continued attempts to dismantle the safety net do not play well with voters a majority of whom have experienced living in poverty at some point in their lives.

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  • http://twitter.com/kateinaz Kathy Killeen

    Got your facts wrong here…Cruz is in Texas; Carmona in AZ (I can say this with certainty, having unfortunately lived in both places!)

    • JMAshby

      Thanks. I lost track of my thoughts between the last two posts (arizona, texas). Fixed.

  • zirgar

    I give you Matt Taibbi on this issue from the perspective of the de facto leader of the GOP:

    http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/blogs/taibblog/hey-rush-limbaugh-starting-an-abortion-industry-wont-win-you-female-voters-20121108

    • JMAshby

      Right. From a policy standpoint immigration reform is important, but the Right mostly views it as a token that they must give someone. Even if they do it, it won’t shift conservative movement opinion, which is what I’m getting at.

      • zirgar

        Well, as it stands now, what could possibly change the conservative opinion on anything? Nothing, that I can see. And as long as the GOP is beholden to these conservative loons it’s doomed because conservatives don’t really see any need to change (everyone and everything else needs to change), and as long as that’s the mindset, the Republican party will have held true to that Faustian bargain and will go out not with a bang, but a whimper.

      • mrbrink

        Their base is 30% cuckoo-racist.

        It’s like that scene from The Blues Brothers at Bob’s Country Bunker. They’ve got both kinds! Country and Western!

        It’s not so much a political party, but a coalition of the Women, Immigrants, and Homosexual Haters Club.

        Good luck with that.

    • muselet

      Cathy McMorris Rodgers agrees with Rush Limbaugh.

      –alopecia

    • D_C_Wilson

      Limpballs is wondering why the GOP doesn’t get “credit” for having a few people like Condoleeza Rice and Marco Rubio.

      Maybe it’s the fact that you think having a handful of tokens is something that’s deserving of “credit”.

  • agrazingmoose

    Nevertheless, the Ds need to up their game in TX and AZ.

  • D_C_Wilson

    We wouldn’t be that lucky.

    The GOP isn’t going to cease to exist, but if they keep going down their current path, they’re going to be a regional party of the deep south and the midwest only.

  • bphoon

    Given that R’s–in particular the TP–are overtly saying that it isn’t their policies that lost them the election I don’t think Cruz is too far off the mark here. As long as they think it’s only a matter of ground game and throwing a few tokens out front Dems have a great opportunity to expand as demographics change.

    Provided the Obama Administration and Congressional Democrats pursue comprehensive immigration reform I think that states like Arizona and Texas will start turning purple sooner than we may think. If Republicans, as expected, continue to obstruct real efforts at reforming our immigration system and efforts to empower a broader swath of voters, that trend will continue.

    The worst think Democrats can do is take any of these demographic groups for granted. Latinos were primed to stay home in many cases until the President signed his “DREAM” executive order. That, however, won’t be enough as we go forward.

  • KABoink_after_wingnut_hacker

    Cruz is stating the obvious. If Texas were to realize that the entire GOP have gone batshit crazy, Republicans would go the way of the whigs.
    It’s a compliment to Texans, because we know that there are a bunch of conferderate states who still live in the 1700′s.

  • trgahan

    Since from the major GOP donor point of view they need immigrants to stay a disinfranchized cheap labor force, I don’t see much change in Republicans stance.

    They will fall back on things like Utah’s guest worker program which bascially puts the employee under the total control of their boss. One slip up in or outside of work and its dismissal, deportation, and your name added to a list as a “problem worker.”